Nicaragua Network Hotlines
Election Special
November 6, 2006
News topics covered in this Hotline include:
- Daniel Ortega Maintains Lead in Nicaraguan Elections (4 pm EST)
- National and International Observers Confirm FSLN Victory (11 am EST)
- Daniel Ortega appears headed to a first ballot victory (7 am EST)
Topic 1: Daniel Ortega Maintains Lead in Nicaraguan Elections (4 pm EST)
Shortly after noon local time, Nicaragua’s Supreme Electoral Council announced that, with 40.45% of precincts reporting and a total of 1,088,411 votes counted, Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista Party maintains his lead in the country’s presidential race. Ortega's lead appears insurmountable.
The numbers are the following: Daniel Ortega (FSLN): 40.01%; Eduardo Montealegre (ALN-PC): 32.72%; José Rizo (PLC) 20.33%; Edmundo Jarquín (MRS): 7.5%; Eden Pastora (AC): 0.29%.
If this tendency continues, Ortega will win in the first round, either with a total above 40% or above 35% and a lead of 5% over the runner-up. Ortega has a sizeable lead in 10 of Nicaragua’s 15 departments and two special autonomous regions. Montealegre was ahead in six departments and Rizo in one. When the rural vote is completely counted Rizo is expected to rise several percentage points and both Ortega and Montealegre to drop a couple of points each. This is not expected, however, to change the relationship between the two leading candidates.
The Nicaraguan national observer group Ethics and Transparency revealed at a 6:50am press conference this morning Nicaraguan time (CST) in Managua that the group’s quick count (a tabulation of the results from sample precincts) confirmed a first round victory for the Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega. The quick count, which is used to check against possible irregularities, showed the FSLN with 38.49%, Eduardo Montealegre, candidate of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) with 29.52%, the Constitutional Liberal Party candidate José Rizo with 24.15%, the Sandinista Renovation Movement candidate Edmundo Jarquin with 7.44% and Eden Pastora of the Alternative for Change party with .4%.
Pablo Ayón, president of Ethics and Transparency, said that, “From all the occurrences that our observers noted, we have concluded that any irregularities do not have sufficient weight overall to alter in any definitive manner these results.” The Ethics and Transparency quick count has a margin of error of more or less 1.7%.
Local television stations reported that Ortega was expected to make a statement sometime after noon local time. ALN-PC candidate Eduardo Montealegre, however, said that his party was preparing for a second round, noting that his numbers showed a difference of less than five points between himself and Daniel Ortega. Meanwhile, MRS candidate Edmundo Jarquín criticized the delay on the part of the Supreme Electoral Council in reporting results, saying that it gave rise to uncertainty about the legitimacy of the process.
U.S. Ambassador Paul Trivelli, leader of the U.S. observation group, said that the elections had been stained by “anomalies” including delays in opening of a number of precincts. “We are not in a position to make a general judgment about the impartiality and transparency of the vote,” Trivelli said. He was echoed by State Department spokesman Tom Casey who said that the United States would wait for final official results before making any statements about winners or losers. He added that Washington was waiting for the different groups of international observers to release their analyses before responding to questions about the elections.
International observer groups, however, continued throughout the day to pronounce the elections free and fair, including that of the Organization of American States (OAS). José Miguel Insulza, Secretary General of the OAS, speaking from Chile, told journalists that he was “satisfied” with the Nicaraguan elections which he indicated had followed all the laws. He dismissed any suggestions of fraud. The OAS mission in Nicaragua said that 70% of Nicaraguans eligible to vote did so. The 200 member team said that the elections had been carried out in a peaceful and orderly fashion with massive participation. The OAS said its observers had noted only isolated problems which were forwarded to the Supreme Electoral Council.
The European Union observation mission head Claudio Fava reported that
the only incidents observed or reported were minor and that the electoral
process had proceeded in a “normal” fashion.
Wilfredo Penco, representative of the Latin American Council of Election
Experts, said “These elections have been normal, peaceful, transparent
and democratic. The results have to be respected by the Nicaraguan people,
because it was the people of Nicaragua who expressed themselves and it will
have to be respected by all foreign governments.” He added that any
attempt to discount the election results, “in particular by foreign
embassies, we consider absolutely impertinent.”
Topic 2: National and International Observers Confirm FSLN Victory (11 am EST)
The Nicaraguan national observer group Ethics and Transparency revealed at a 6:50am press conference this morning Nicaraguan time (CST) in Managua that the group’s quick count (a tabulation of the results from sample precincts) confirmed a first round victory for the Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega. The quick count, which is used to check against possible irregularities, showed the FSLN with 38.49%, Eduardo Montealegre, candidate of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) with 29.52%, the Constitutional Liberal Party candidate José Rizo with 24.15%, the Sandinista Renovation Movement candidate Edmundo Jarquin with 7.44% and Eden Pastora of the Alternative for Change party with .4%.
A candidate can win on the first round with 40% of the votes or with 35% and a five point lead over the next candidate.
Pablo Ayón, president of Ethics and Transparency, said that, “From all the occurrences that our observers noted, we have concluded that any irregularities do not have sufficient weight overall to alter in any definitive manner these results.” The Ethics and Transparency quick count has a margin of error of more or less 1.7%.
Meanwhile, the 200 member team from the Organization of American States (OAS) said that the elections had been carried out in a peaceful and orderly fashion with massive participation. The OAS said its observers had noted only isolated problems which were forwarded to the Supreme Electoral Council. The European Union observation mission head Claudio Fava reported that the only incidents observed or reported were minor and that the electoral process had proceeded in a “normal” fashion.
Wilfredo Penco, representative of the Latin American Council of Election Experts, said “These elections have been normal, peaceful, transparent and democratic. The results have to be respected by the Nicaraguan people, because it was the people of Nicaragua who expressed themselves and it will have to be respected by all foreign governments.” He added that any attempt to discount the election results, “in particular by foreign embassies, we consider absolutely impertinent.”
Penco was evidently referring to a statement put out by the U.S. Embassy
in Managua which, Associated Press reported, said it was too soon to "make
an overall judgment on the fairness and transparency of the process."
The statement went on to say, “We are receiving reports of some anomalies
in the electoral process," including polling stations that opened late
and closed early. Roberto Rivas, president of the Supreme Electoral Council,
in releasing early results this morning said that he had a communiqué
from the United States Embassy which, he said, challenged the impartiality
and transparency of the elections.
Topic 3: Daniel Ortega appears headed to a first ballot victory (7 am EST)
At 7:00 am EST, Daniel Ortega, former FLSN president of Nicaragua, appears
headed to a first ballot victory to reclaim his title. In the wee hours
of the morning the Nicaraguan Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) released the
following results based on results from 14.65% of the polling places:
Ortega (Sandinista Front for National Liberation) – 40.04%
Eduardo Montealegre (National Liberal Alliance-Conservative Party) –
33.29%
Jose Rizo (Consititutional Liberal Party) – 19.51%
Edmundo Jarquin (Sandinista Renovation Movement) – 6.89%
Eden Pastora (Alternative Change Party) – 0.27%
If Ortega maintains at least 35% and a lead over Montealegre of at least 5%, he will win election on the first ballot. If his lead slips below that, a run-off election between the two highest vote getters will take place within 45 days.
FSLN supporters began celebrating in the streets after the CSE's announcement with many of them rushing to Metrocentro in Managua to express their joy at apparently overcoming 16 years of US-backed neoliberal right-wing governments and an extraordinarily intense US government campaign to defeat Ortega, so intense that it drew a rare censure from the Organization of American States.
An ALN spokesperson rejected the results claiming that too few ballots have been counted to declare a victor and that "independent" counts show a much closer result. The results of a "quick count" by the national monitoring organization Etica and Transparencia (Ethics and Transparency) that was expected to be released by midnight has not been released several hours later.
We will update this hotline as more results become available.
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This hotline is prepared from the Nicaragua News Service and other sources.
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