Nicaragua Network Hotlines
Election Special
November 7, 2006, 11 am EST
"Results Irreversible" Daniel Ortega Wins
Nicaragua’s Supreme Electoral Council announced at 7:30pm yesterday evening local time that, with 61.8% of ballot boxes counted, FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega maintained his lead of 38.59% of the vote, with runner-up Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) getting 30.94%. Jose Rizo, the candidate of the Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) showed 22.93% and Sandinista Renovation Movement candidate Edmundo Jarquín received 7.25%.
While this shows a drop in Ortega’s vote of 1.42% and puts him below 40%, it still would give him a first round victory because he maintained a 7.65 percentage point lead over the second ranked candidate, Eduardo Montealegre. (To avoid a run-off vote, a candidate must have 40% of the vote or be above 35% and have a 5 point advantage over the next ranked candidate.)
These results match very closely the Nicaraguan national observer group Ethics and Transparency’s quick count (a tabulation of the results from sample precincts) released yesterday morning. The quick count, which is used to check against possible irregularities, showed the FSLN with 38.49% and Eduardo Montealegre, candidate of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) with 29.52%. Pablo Ayón, president of Ethics and Transparency, said that, “From all the occurrences that our observers noted, we have concluded that any irregularities do not have sufficient weight overall to alter in any definitive manner these results.” The Ethics and Transparency quick count has a margin of error of more or less 1.7%.
With regard to the elections for Nicaragua’s National Assembly, the daily newspaper El Nuevo Diario cited economist Alejandro Martinez Cuenca as predicting that the FSLN would lose one deputy and have 37 deputies instead of the present 38. The PLC would be the biggest loser and would have only 22 deputies instead of the 53 that the party won in 2001. The ALN would have 27 deputies and the MRS six, according to Martinez Cuenca’s calculations.
Daniel Ortega met for almost an hour with former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who led the Carter Center election observation team. The Carter team was expected to hold a press conference to release its election statement today at 11:30 local Nicaraguan time (12:30 EST). Ortega told the press before going into his meeting with Carter that, while he expects the Supreme Electoral Council to declare him the victor in the elections, he would not make a victory statement until the final results were known. He called on all political forces in the nation to unite to work together to eradicate poverty in Nicaragua, give security to the private sector as well as to national and foreign investors.
While predictably U.S. Ambassador Paul Trivelli, leader of the U.S. observation group, said that the elections had been stained by “anomalies” including delays in opening of a number of precincts, other international groups had only positive statements to make about the elections. Organization of American States (OAS) Secretary General José Miguel Insulza, speaking from Chile, told journalists that he was “satisfied” with the Nicaraguan elections which, he indicated, had followed all the laws. He dismissed any suggestions of fraud. The OAS observation mission in Nicaragua said that 70% of Nicaraguans eligible to vote did so. The 200 member team said that the elections had been carried out in a peaceful and orderly fashion with massive participation. The OAS said its observers had noted only isolated problems which were forwarded to the Supreme Electoral Council.
The European Union observation mission head Claudio Fava reported that
the only incidents observed or reported were minor and that the electoral
process had proceeded in a “normal” fashion.
Wilfredo Penco, representative of the Latin American Council of Election
Experts, said “These elections have been normal, peaceful, transparent
and democratic. The results have to be respected by the Nicaraguan people,
because it was the people of Nicaragua who expressed themselves and it will
have to be respected by all foreign governments.” He added that any
attempt to discount the election results, “in particular by foreign
embassies, we consider absolutely impertinent.”
This hotline is prepared from the Nicaragua News Service and other sources.
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