Nicanet - The Nicaragua Network

Nicaragua Network Hotlines for November 15, 2006

News topics covered in this Hotline include:

Topic 1: CSE Releases final National Assembly results

Today El Nuevo Diario reported that the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) issued final provisional figures, with all votes counted, showing that Eduardo Montealegre, leader of the National Liberal Alliance (ALN), held onto second place in the presidential race, but the ALN slipped to third place in the National Assembly, behind the Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) which had greater electoral strength in the rural areas. Unless there are serious challenges, the final make-up of the Assembly will be FSLN 38 seats, PLC 25, the ALN 22 and the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) 5. As runner-up in the presidential race, Montealegre will also have a seat, and Enrique Bolaños has also said he will take up the seat automatically accorded to the outgoing president. It may well be he will join the ALN bench. Thus the PLC and the ALN may end up in a virtual tie, with 25 and 24 respectively. The parties have three days to issue challenges to the provisional figures after which they become final.

Although many in the MRS have made positive comments about the Ortega victory, or taken a wait and see attitude, Edmundo Jarquin, failed presidential candidate for the MRS, commenting before the CSE announcement, to speculation that the MRS would drop from the previously expected 6 seats to 5, observed acidly, “Ortega only won because of his nefarious pact with Arnoldo Aleman and the PLC. Almost two-thirds of voters voted against him. When he and Aleman concluded the pact, they had control of over 90% of the seats in the Assembly. However it turns out in the last analysis, things will be very different now. The primary work of this post-electoral period must be the dismantling of that pact. Like it or not, Nicaragua is now in a position of positive pluralism, a multi-party system replacing that old bi-polarism. And, whether they want to or not, the caudillos have got to face up to this. We intend to see that they do.”

Sergio Ramirez, Ortega’s one-time vice-president who led the breakaway MRS in 1994, spoke for most commentators when he said, “Whatever about the past, Daniel deserves the benefit of the doubt. For now. The question is, can he deliver?”

The 38 votes of the FSLN in the National Assembly are less than the simple majority needed to pass legislation and far less than the super majority needed to amend the constitution. Even adding the 5 MRS votes to the FSLN votes does not achieve a simple majority. That means Ortega will have to draw votes from the PLC or the ALN to pass any legislation and the PLC is the more likely of the two Liberal benches to negotiate its support. It would appear that the so-called “pact” is more likely than not to continue into the future. Another wild card in the game is that several former contra leaders are among the FSLN legislators who will take office. Will Ortega be able to hold the “big tent” “United, Nicaragua Triumphs” alliance together, or will new benches form in the National Assembly around diverse interests?

US Ambassador Paul Trivelli and the State Department have remained blessedly silent in the past week, not renewing any of their outrageous threats of what would happen if Nicaraguans voted “wrong” in their Nov. 5 election. The Nicaraguan people showed great courage to vote their own interests in the face of such blatant threats that even the Organization of American States criticized US interference in the election.

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Topic 2: IDB Set to Ease Nicaragua’s Debt Burden and No Capital Flight

Responding to an international campaign to pressure the Inter-American Bank (IDB) to follow the lead of the G8 richest countries and the IMF and World Bank to cancel debt of the most highly indebted poor countries, the IDB announced that it will write off close to US$3.5 billion in external debt to five countries in Latin America, including Nicaragua. The others are Haiti, Honduras, Bolivia and Guyana. Nicaragua’s share would be in the order of US$600 – 800 million, which would cut its overall debt to the IDB in half. The announcement, coming on the heels of the FSLN electoral victory shows that the international community was not as fearful of an Ortega victory as US officials portrayed.

President-elect Ortega made it a priority to meet with Nicaragua’s principal investors. As a result, the Nicaraguan Association of Private Banks and other leading financial institutions indicated their readiness to continue investing under his new government. Carlos Pellas, who heads up Nicaragua’s wealthiest family of the same name, said he had proposed to Ortega that the government and private capital work together to “raise Nicaragua up from poverty.” “We are satisfied that president-elect Ortega plans to maintain the same macro-economic model currently in place,” he said. “This means that the Pellas group can invest more funds directly into Nicaragua. Naturally, this makes us very happy.”

His words were echoed by Edwin Kruger, president of the Nicaraguan Chamber of Commerce. “Mr. Ortega met with us for three hours,” he stated. “It was an excellent meeting, during which he did much to dispel our fears and doubts.” Another leading financier, Ernesto Fernández Colman, revealed that the meeting led into a full and frank discussion concerning the economic development of the country and the reduction of the widespread poverty.

Vice-president-elect Jaime Morales also participated, describing the meetings as taking place in “an atmosphere of tranquility and full confidence.” He revealed that the businessmen put forward a plan to develop large “development poles,” to be constructed in short order, to generate significant wealth, to create thousands of jobs, and to employ primarily national resources.

For his part, Ortega guaranteed to respect the role of the private banking sector, at the same time asking them to extend credit to some of those currently unable to qualify for it. Luciano Astorga, who is the president of the banking association, noted that there had so far been no capital flight in the wake of the election result, “a fact that in itself shows exactly how stable things are and just how confident our savers feel.”

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Topic 3: US Military to Train Latin Americans Again; US Troops to Nicaragua for Ortega Takeover

La Prensa, quoting USA Today, claimed that, “In view of their concern at the recent leftist election victories in Latin America, the United States will once again train soldiers from 22 countries, including 11 from Latin America and the Caribbean. Countries on the list are México, Costa Rica(!), Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Barbados, Trinidad y Tobago, San Vicente and Grenada.” The report notes that such assistance was suspended in 2002 because some of the countries involved would not guarantee US soldiers immunity from prosecution for war crimes. Nicaragua is not on the list because it agreed to the U.S. demands. The Nicaraguan Army has been receiving some training from the U.S.

George Bush signed a special presidential order on October 2 of this year lifting the prohibition. “The US administration is confident that by forming links with countries throughout the region in this way, the leftward tendency will be reduced,” concluded the USA Today report. A spokesperson for the US military Southern Command, José Ruiz, confirmed the resumption of trainings but emphasized that the veto on arms transfers currently in force would be continued.

Meanwhile, Nicaraguan Defense Minister, Avil Ramírez, announced “with pride” that the US military would be renewing its “New Horizons” program in Nicaragua early next year. “More than 800 US troops will arrive in Nicaragua from January 5 onwards,” he said. “They will be based in the Department of Carazo, just south of Managua, and will remain in country until mid-May.” President-elect Daniel Ortega will take office on January 10. “New Horizons” troops came to Nicaragua in 1998 to help with Hurricane Mitch recovery and they’ve never left.

Noting that some of the troops would arrive by air, others by sea, Ramírez continued, “They will build two schools and two clinics. Further, because they will include both medical and veterinary teams, they will offer the local people free care both for themselves and for their cattle and other animals.” US citizens should ask their elected representatives why 800 US troops are needed in Nicaragua to build two schools and two clinics. With a newly reported youth unemployment rate of 70% and adult unemployment near 50% why should US soldiers be taking away Nicaraguan construction jobs? Obviously that’s not why they are there. Reportedly the US has plans for a military base near Chinandega from which it could control the Gulf of Fonseca. Most of their “humanitarian” projects since Hurricane Mitch have been along the proposed route for the high speed freight railroad which Nicaraguans call the dry canal, which also raises suspicion. Given the US’s nefarious history in Nicaragua, there can be no justification for having troops on the ground there now – especially not on the January 10 inauguration day. Call your elected officials and demand that the US pull its troops out of Nicaragua now. The Capitol Switchboard is 202-224-3121.

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Topic 4: Widespread Protest over Proposed 45% Water Rate Hike

Speaking to a gathering of trade unionists, president-elect Ortega reiterated his campaign promises to reduce the mega-salaries of government officials and to appoint women to 50% of government posts. He further emphasized that his government would indeed eradicate hunger, but “by creating jobs, not by assistance programs.” With regard to salaries, he said, “We have to go to the new National Assembly with a clear proposal to reform the budget. Our government functionaries should be entitled to a decent income, but we must put an end to these mega-salaries.”

He went on to invite the union representatives to “think of good people to propose for our ministers. But remember that 50% must be women.” For their part, the union leaders asked that the new government respect all labor laws, including that of occupational safety and hygiene. They also urged that the Ortega administration should promote the full participation of workers in consultations, and the formation of a National Work Council. Speaking as representative of the workers in the free trade zones and as secretary of the Sandinista Workers Central, Pedro Ortega said that his workers would “not ask more than the law permits,” but asked for the formation of a minimum wage commission to expand existing law.

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Topic 5: UNICEF Warning Over Aids

Debora Comini, speaking for UNICEF, warned that AIDS in Nicaragua is increasing at about 9 times the rate suggested by official figures. An especially worrying trend was that a high proportion of those affected were children. According to UNICEF statistics, 11% of those with the virus are children, mostly infected while still within the womb or during the birth process itself. “We estimate that for every case registered by the health authorities there are nine that go undetected,” she asserted. UNICEF puts the lack of reliable information down to poor education, poverty and the lack of ready access to health services for a high proportion of the population.

Comini stressed that, because Nicaraguan records were so poor, it was very difficult to track the AIDS-HIV growth rate in the country. “We do know that a significant number of new cases are among the children, however,” she continued, “and also that over the past few years, many more women are contracting the disease.” Noting that the highest concentration of AIDS was to be found in the western seaboard in Managua and Chinandega, Comini warned, “While HIV-AIDS incidence in Nicaragua is still not epidemic, this is the moment to act to prevent it becoming so, especially since so many new cases are among the very young.”

She was supported by Dr. Enrique Beteta, national coordinator for Projects of the Youth Secretariat. According to Beteta, where just four years ago Nicaragua registered maybe three or four cases a month, that figure was now up to one or two persons per day, a vast percentage increase. “In 1996 a law was passed to make protection available to people with AIDS,” he said. “To date, the program hasn’t received one single penny.”

In closing Comini lamented the fact that AIDS also brought down serious discrimination on little children. “They will be rejected just because one or other of their parents is AIDS-positive,” she said. “And if they themselves are infected they are ostracized at school and segregated in the hospital. People even refuse to handle their clothing.”

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This hotline is prepared from the Nicaragua News Service and other sources. To receive a more extensive weekly summary of the news from Nicaragua by e-mail or postal service, send a check for $60.00 to Nicaragua Network, 1247 E St., SE, Washington, DC 20003. We can be reached by phone at 202-544-9355.